Which European countries have the bones of increased consumer spending?

The chart below plots the % change in disposable income (per capita) against the % change in population for each European country that is either in the EFTA or the EU.

The 4 quadrants are:

- More people, more money: These countries have more people and people have more money to spend
- More people, less money: These countries have more people but everyone has less spending money on average
- Less people, more money: These countries have fewer people but those who remain have more money to spend
- Less people, less money: These countries have fewer people and everyone has less spending money on average

Quad 1 countries are ones we can expect to have a robust future for consumer goods and retail.

Quad 2 countries require a bit of a waiting game to see if they can fully utilise their larger population base to their advantage but they do have to contend with sustaining their social programs.

Quad 3 countries where the government will likely have a lower social burden going forward and can therefore improve their credit ratings. These could also become good markets for higher end products

Quad 4 countries are the dogs. They have neither the people nor the money. Watch these to see if they can get something going with tourism (Portugal) or with remittances. Regardless they will need more ECB help